Research | Eduard F. Martínez-González

Publications

Bibliometric exploration of infrastructure and natural hazards research in low and middle income countries toward sustainable development goals

Wei Wang, Boyuan Lu, Yi Xu, and 9 more authors

Discover Sustainability, Dec 2025

A bibliometric map of 23,763 studies (1960–2025) on infrastructure and natural hazards in low- and middle-income countries: LMICs are underrepresented both as study sites and as authors, and telecommunications, coastal protection and green infrastructure are critically overlooked.

Abstract DOI Bib PDF

Infrastructure systems are essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), yet they face increasing risks from natural hazards—especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where infrastructure systems are often inadequate and institutional capacities are limited. This study presents a large-scale bibliometric analysis of 23,763 publications indexed in the Web of Science from 1960 to 2025, focused on the intersection of infrastructure and natural hazards in LMICs. We examined publication trends, author and study site geography, and thematic coverage of infrastructure and natural hazard types, while introducing sentiment analysis of publication metadata and topological mapping of research categories as novel approaches to capture research tone, urgency, and cross-domain linkages. Our findings reveal that although related publications have increased over time, LMICs remain significantly underrepresented in the literature, with only a few—such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam—receiving relatively more attention. This underrepresentation is mirrored in authorship patterns: participation from LMIC-based researchers is limited, and international collaboration is dominated by non-LMICs, with intra-LMIC partnerships particularly rare. Infrastructure topics such as social services, transportation, and water systems dominate the literature, while telecommunication, coastal protection, and green infrastructure are critically overlooked. Sentiment analysis suggests increasing concerns in hazard-prone regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East. This study highlights the need for more geographically inclusive, thematically balanced, and interdisciplinary research agendas. Expanding representation across LMICs, increasing local scholarly participation, addressing neglected infrastructure sectors, and recognizing region-specific challenges are essential for supporting more resilient and equitable infrastructure systems under intensifying natural hazard risks.
@article{wang2025bibliometric, author = {Wang, Wei and Lu, Boyuan and Xu, Yi and Tekle, Shewandagn Lemma and Toni, Abebe Teklu and Zhang, Xiuling and Li, Yihan and Ajuwon, Oluseye Samuel and Dahoro, Davo Ayuba and Martínez, Eduard and Lozano, Juan Sebastian and Gelvez, Juan David}, title = {Bibliometric exploration of infrastructure and natural hazards research in low and middle income countries toward sustainable development goals}, journal = {Discover Sustainability}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {1407}, year = {2025}, month = dec, doi = {10.1007/s43621-025-02273-8}, }

Working Papers

When Do Property Rights Reduce Illicit Crops? Market Connectivity as the Binding Constraint

Eduard F. Martínez-González, María del Pilar López-Uribe, and Juan Muñoz-Mora

2026

Working Paper

Land titling cuts coca cultivation by 42–64% on impact, but the effect fades within two years — unless titling is paired with tertiary roads to local markets, which sustains a 33–38% reduction.

Abstract SSRN Bib Slides

This paper estimates the effect of land property rights on illicit crop cultivation under weak institutions. We study Formalizar para Sustituir (FxS), a Colombian program that allocated land titles to farmers in coca-producing areas as part of the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC. Matching administrative titling records to annual high-resolution satellite imagery of coca fields at the 1 km × 1 km grid level, we compare titled grids to neighboring non-titled grids over 2011–2021 using a difference-in-differences design. Land titling reduces coca cultivation by 42–64% immediately, but the effect fades within two years. In the short term, titled households increase credit demand and investment in productive activities, and report incomes above what coca farming generates. These changes are consistent with property rights operating through the channels theory predicts, yet they are insufficient to sustain substitution on their own. The FxS×Placa-Huella interaction coefficient (ψ) implies an additional sustained reduction of 33–38% relative to the pre-treatment coca mean in grids that combine land titling with tertiary road construction, suggesting that connectivity to local markets is the binding constraint for long-run transition away from illicit crops. Roads alone, by contrast, are associated with more coca — a result consistent with prior evidence that infrastructure without institutional preconditions benefits illegal as much as legal activity.
@unpublished{martinez2024landrights, author = {Martínez-González, Eduard F. and López-Uribe, María del Pilar and Muñoz-Mora, Juan}, title = {When Do Property Rights Reduce Illicit Crops? Market Connectivity as the Binding Constraint}, year = {2026}, note = {Working Paper}, }
Losing the Lottery: Household Financial Shocks and Crime

Eduard F. Martínez-González

2024

Working Paper

After the collapse of a Colombian informal financial institution wiped out the savings of 160,000+ investors, criminal records rose by 0.5% — and access to remaining savings cushioned the shock.

Abstract Bib PDF

This study delves into the ramifications of negative economic shocks on criminal activities. I collected criminal records and administrative records of more than 160,000 investors affected by the closure of a Colombian informal financial institution in 2008. I employed a regression discontinuity design, exploiting the serendipitous timing of deposit expiration dates relative to the institution’s shutdown to dissect the shock’s effects at an individual level. The results reveal an increase of 0.5% in the number of total criminal records, 0.26% in property crimes, and 0.17% in violent crimes. This could be attributed to the loss of well-being due to the depletion of savings or a significant portion of their capital, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of engaging in crime. However, individuals with pre-existing deposits experienced a diminished effect, with a decrease of 0.2%, resulting in a net increase of 0.3% in crime. This suggests that access to savings and the ability to withdraw funds can mitigate the financial repercussions of an economic shock.
@unpublished{martinez2024lottery, author = {Martínez-González, Eduard F.}, title = {Losing the Lottery: Household Financial Shocks and Crime}, year = {2024}, note = {Working Paper}, }
Firm Regulatory Compliance and Board Oversight: Does Sending Reports to Colombian Non-Profit Institutions Work?

Eduard F. Martínez-González and Cesar Mantilla

2024

Working Paper

An email experiment with 4,600+ Colombian non-profit financial institutions: reports addressed to the board of directors — not only the manager — significantly raise regulatory compliance.

Abstract Bib PDF

Around 500 million people worldwide access financial services through non-profit financial institutions. In Colombia, the number of such institutions grew by 20% between 2017 and 2023; however, compliance with mandatory reporting to the national regulatory authority declined by up to 17 percentage points. We conducted an email-based randomized intervention involving over 4,600 institutions, in which we varied its personalized content between informative and deterrent (i.e., an infographic summary or a checklist of financial risk warnings) and the message recipient (i.e., the manager alone, or the manager and the board of directors). Using administrative panel data from 2019 to 2024 and a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy, we estimate the causal effects of the intervention on reporting behavior. We find that emails addressed to the board of directors significantly increase compliance. Among institutions lacking contact information for the board, we randomized only the content and find that informative messages improve compliance, while deterrent messages do not. These findings highlight the importance of enhancing the visibility and role of board directors in contexts where regulatory enforcement is weak.
@unpublished{martinez2024regulatory, author = {Martínez-González, Eduard F. and Mantilla, Cesar}, title = {Firm Regulatory Compliance and Board Oversight: Does Sending Reports to Colombian Non-Profit Institutions Work?}, year = {2024}, note = {Working Paper}, }
Coca-Based Local Growth and its Socio Environmental Impacts in Colombia

Eduard F. Martínez-González, Lucas Marín Llanes, Manuel Fernández, and 2 more authors

2024

Working Paper

The 2010s coca boom raised municipal GDP by 2.8–10.5% (multiplier ≈ 1.45) without increasing violence — but deforestation rose 77.5% and tax revenues did not follow.

Abstract SSRN Bib

Illegal economies are commonly viewed as barriers to development and sources of violence. This study challenges that view by showing that illegal markets can generate broader economic and social benefits without necessarily increasing violence. We examine the economic and socio-environmental impacts of the 2010s coca cultivation surge in Colombia using a difference-in-differences strategy that leverages a policy announcement that created incentives to expand coca cultivation in some municipalities, combined with nighttime lights as a proxy for economic activity. We find that the coca boom increased annual municipal GDP by 2.8% to 10.5%, with an estimated GDP multiplier of 1.45. Despite a 250% rise in coca cultivation, we find no evidence of increased violence. Suggestive evidence indicates improvements in youth educational outcomes. However, the income shock did not lead to higher tax revenues. Moreover, the economic expansion raised deforestation rates by 77.5%, underscoring the long-term environmental costs of the coca boom.
@unpublished{martinez2024coca, author = {Martínez-González, Eduard F. and Marín Llanes, Lucas and Fernández, Manuel and Vélez, María Alejandra and Murillo, Paulo}, title = {Coca-Based Local Growth and its Socio Environmental Impacts in Colombia}, year = {2024}, note = {Working Paper}, }
Restrictions on Urban Mobility and Crime: Evidence from Motorcycle Bans in Colombia

Eduard F. Martínez-González, Michael Weintraub, and Leonardo Bonilla

2022

Working Paper

Motorcycle bans adopted to fight crime in Colombian cities show no robust crime reductions — and where effects do appear, crime is displaced to neighboring areas of the same magnitude.

Abstract SSRN Bib Slides

In many low- and middle-income countries, motorcycles are the most commonly used means of transportation. Beyond their many legal uses, motorcycles are also widely used to commit crimes. While motorcycle restrictions to reduce crime have been adopted in at least 16 countries, we do not know if they are effective. We evaluate the impact of three motorcycle bans in Colombia: ban male passengers, ban any passengers (regardless of sex), and ban motorcycles outright. To identify causal effects on crime, we estimate difference-in-differences models that exploit spatial and temporal variation in the implementation of these measures using georeferenced crime data. In four cases we find no crime reduction effects of these policies. Even when we do identify such effects, they tend to be associated with spatial displacement of crime of equal magnitude, or the results are not robust to different model specifications. Given the high costs of ensuring compliance with these measures, and the costs they impose on ordinary citizens, local authorities should seek out other alternatives to improve citizen security.
@unpublished{martinez2022motorcycle, author = {Martínez-González, Eduard F. and Weintraub, Michael and Bonilla, Leonardo}, title = {Restrictions on Urban Mobility and Crime: Evidence from Motorcycle Bans in Colombia}, year = {2022}, note = {Working Paper}, }
Payroll Taxes, Wage Rigidities and Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Colombian Labor Market

Eduard F. Martínez-González and Danilo Aristizabal

2021

Working Paper

A payroll-tax cut for hiring workers under 28 increased youth labor-force participation in Colombia, with asymmetric effects for workers below and above the minimum wage.

Abstract Bib PDF

This paper studies the effect on youth employment of a payroll tax cut for new hires young workers under the age of 28 in Colombia. We exploit differential degrees of exposure to wage rigidities to identify the effect. We measure an individual’s exposure to wage rigidities as the distance, in the city in which the individual lives, from the median salary by educational level with respect to the minimum wage. We have two different treatment groups and use a difference-in-difference model. The effect of reduced payroll taxes is asymmetric for youth who earn below and above the minimum wage. Reducing payroll taxes increased youth labor participation, rather than reducing informality.
@unpublished{martinez2021payroll, author = {Martínez-González, Eduard F. and Aristizabal, Danilo}, title = {Payroll Taxes, Wage Rigidities and Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Colombian Labor Market}, year = {2021}, note = {Working Paper}, }

Policy & Technical Reports

Operational Capacity and Prudential Regulation: A Segmentation Study in Credit Unions

Eduard F. Martínez-González

2024

Supersolidaria Technical Document (DTS 002)

A k-means segmentation of credit unions by operational capacity, characterized with deposit and credit records of 3.8 million members — evidence for a differentiated prudential regulation.

Abstract Bib PDF

Segmentation is a fundamental concept in economics, defined as the grouping or classification of agents with homogeneous characteristics and/or capabilities. This document develops a segmentation exercise in Credit Unions (CUs) based on their operational capacity and presents a socioeconomic and financial characterization of each cluster. To identify the segments of the cooperatives, the k-means clustering algorithm was applied. The characterization of each segment was conducted using administrative records with the individual deposit and credit accounts of 3.8 million people associated with the CUs supervised by the Superintendency of the Solidarity Economy. The results suggest the need for a differentiated regulatory approach due to significant variations in operational capacity, technology adoption, risk management, and credit policies.
@unpublished{martinez2024segmentation, author = {Martínez-González, Eduard F.}, title = {Operational Capacity and Prudential Regulation: A Segmentation Study in Credit Unions}, year = {2024}, note = {Supersolidaria Technical Document (DTS 002)}, }
School Education for Inclusion and Social Transformation in the Colombian Caribbean

Eduard F. Martínez-González and Leonardo Bonilla

2020

DTSER-BANREP Working Paper 263

A costed big-push for public education in the Colombian Caribbean — preschool, full-day schooling, teacher training, and institutional capacity — to close the gap by 2030 (US$6.3 billion over 12 years).

Abstract Bib HTML PDF

The Caribbean Region of Colombia is particularly behind in terms of school coverage and quality. This paper proposes a set of policies that provide a big push to the public education system and allow closing the gap by 2030. Policies are organized into four categories: Preschool education, full-day schooling, teacher training and institutional capacity. The total cost of the intervention is estimated at 6,274 million dollars over 12 years, of which 2,114 correspond to investments and 4,160 to the additional recurrent expenditures of the education system.
@unpublished{martinez2020caribbean, author = {Martínez-González, Eduard F. and Bonilla, Leonardo}, title = {School Education for Inclusion and Social Transformation in the Colombian Caribbean}, year = {2020}, note = {DTSER-BANREP Working Paper 263}, }